The latest news on swine flu confirms what I have always thought: the “pandemic” is little more than a pandemic of panic, plus a few people getting a nasty headache for a couple of days. Here is the latest news from the BBC:
Big drop in new swine flu cases
The number of new cases of H1N1 swine flu in England and Scotland has fallen significantly, latest figures show.
England recorded an estimated 30,000 cases last week, compared with 110,000 the week before. In Scotland estimated numbers fell from 1,500 to 1,050.
The Health Protection Agency said there was no sign that the virus was mutating into a more lethal form, or developing resistance to drugs.
I don’t like to say “I told you so”. But I did, at least in a comment on Paul Trathen’s blog. Paul showed that he was not much of a prophet when he wrote, on 24th July:
It is a matter of fairly inevitable exponential arithmetic that numbers of those contracting this illness will escalate very sharply indeed over the coming weeks …
I replied on the same day:
Continued exponential growth of swine flu is not inevitable. I understand that in some countries including Scotland its spread is slowing down.
We can only guess why this illness is no longer spreading. It could be the warm weather – but probably not as until today it has been quite cool here. It could be the school holidays. It could be people taking more care not to touch and breathe on one another. I doubt if it has much to do with the Communion cup no longer being offered in many churches.
To be fair, I can’t claim to be a prophet either, for the BBC is also reporting:
Officials have always predicted rates of infection would fall away in the summer before a large surge in the autumn to coincide with the normal flu season.
Well, we may see a surge, but also the main danger from swine flu will have passed, for
the first swine flu vaccines are likely to be licensed for use in the general population in September
– just in time to protect those who are vulnerable to anything more than a headache.
But when will the archbishops and bishops of the Church of England admit that they have overreacted and withdraw their theologically as well as medically flawed advice to clergy to withhold the Communion cup from their congregations?
The biggest pandemic thing about swine flu was the media hype about it. Journos were desperate for some or other health fundi to tell them that it was going to wipe out the human race, and if the health fundis didn’t say that, the journos made it sound like that by their questioning.
My daughter had it, and demanded that I apologise for mocking it.
Indeed, Steve. Sorry if I seem to be mocking the illness itself, which is indeed nasty but is over in a few days. It is the panic from the journalists and the bishops that I am mocking.
The Archbishops have at last seen sense on this and reversed their theologically irresponsible guidance. They have issued new guidance, as reported at the Church Times Blog, which includes the following:
There was of course no surge in cases in the autumn, just a slight increase in September which levelled off in October even before widespread vaccination started. Was I the only one to predict that?